Download the free NYSE magazine iPad app

TopStories

Power Moves Gesture recognition from InvenSense lets you control hand-held devices through simple motions.
Bodies in Motion Analog Devices sensors power 3-D data collection.
An On-Ramp for IPOs NYSE Euronext supports policies to boost capital access for emerging growth companies.
Plug In to the Strip MGM Resorts’ new charging stations make it easier to cruise Vegas in an electric car.

Global Operations

CEOs are keen on emerging 
markets but are worried about protectionism and political risks.


By Susan Caminiti

What will it take to reignite global economic growth? More confident consumers and investors, obviously, but CEOs would also like to see more political stability, particularly in emerging markets. The ideal economic stimulus would be “peace breaking out around the globe,” in Leggett & Platt CEO David Haffner’s wry phrase. But in fact, most of the U.S. CEOs surveyed (71 percent) say “political risk” is an external factor that will affect the overall growth of their companies through 2011. Slightly fewer non-U.S. corporate leaders (66 percent) feel as much of a threat from political risk.

Top executives differ on whether the potential payoff in emerging markets justifies the volatility and on where the most tempting opportunities are to be found. Although Chiquita Brands International Inc. (CQB) Chairman and CEO Fernando Aguirre views emerging markets as “major growth opportunities,” he advises companies to “make sure their main markets such as the U.S. and Europe are back to normal before embarking on renewed efforts elsewhere. Emerging markets remain great opportunities for many companies, but the economic impact has also increased their risk.”

CEOs both inside and outside the U.S. agree that America is an indispensable market. Eight out of 10 business leaders cite the U.S. as being important or crucial to their company’s success, with 61 percent naming it their most important market. Western Europe and China once again came in a distant second and third most important, at 23 percent and 18 percent, respectively, with emerging markets further down the list.

“The U.S. did not have anywhere near the bumps and bruises of Europe and Japan,” says Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a global risk consultancy based in New York City. “But that’s like saying we’re the smartest kids in the stupid class.”

Still, emerging markets retained an enduring appeal for corporate strategists in light of the developed world’s more modest growth rates. That’s particularly true for the four biggest emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India and China, known collectively as the BRIC countries.

Douglas Bergeron, CEO of VeriFone Systems Inc., expects the BRIC quartet to post the world’s most robust growth in the years ahead, followed by Turkey, Mexico, the Middle East and South Africa. Of course, not all emerging markets are the same: Contrast India’s vibrant democracy, booming tech economy and burgeoning consumer class (but lingering rural poverty) with the oil-fueled authoritarian revival that marked Russia under Vladimir Putin. “I would take Russia out of the BRIC,” says Bremmer. “It’s a commodity play at best.” In its place, he likes Indonesia and Mexico, countries that he says offer not just natural resources but also organic growth driven by an emerging middle class.

Political scientists have long argued that capitalist democracies do best when they have a prosperous, politically secure middle class. That’s why Daniel B. Hurwitz, CEO of Developers Diversified Realty Corp. (DDR), which had $819 million in 2009 revenues, is bullish on Brazil, where the company owns a premier portfolio of regional malls in and around São Paulo. “We’re seeing very strong growth in retail sales for our tenants as the middle class continues to grow,” Hurwitz says. Adds Eurasia Group’s Bremmer: “Without question, Brazil is a very exciting market. It has huge deepwater oil reserves, strong demographics and political stability.”

Global Trade

In these early days of recovery, CEOs’ outlook on global trade has improved, though not to prerecession levels. The percentage of corporate leaders rating the current trade atmosphere as unfavorable dropped to 18 percent, versus 45 percent who viewed it as unfavorable last year. Meanwhile, 29 percent of chief executives describe global trade as favorable to their business. That’s more than double the percentage of CEOs who felt that way last year but still far below the 48 percent recorded in 2007.

Broken down by location, 38 percent of European CEOs (compared with less than 10 percent for the rest of the world) still see the global trade environment as having an unfavorable effect on their business. Twenty-nine percent of U.S. CEOs view the global trade environment as favorable, though the majority of them (62 percent) call it neutral.

The survey displays some variations in these views by industry. Only 16 percent of CEOs in the consumer products, retail and health sector feel the global trade environment is favorable. The sector with the most positive outlook on the global trade environment is manufacturing, construction and mining, with 39 percent calling it favorable or better.

CEOs are most concerned about trade restrictions or protectionism coming from China and the U.S. Two-thirds of business leaders express particular concern about Chinese protectionist measures, while just over half are worried about U.S. trade restrictions.

About a third (35 percent) of CEOs surveyed report that they outsource some of their business operations to offshore partners. But 32 percent of CEOs find outsourcing less economically attractive than it was three years ago, while 14 percent find it more attractive. Aguirre of Chiquita Brands currently outsources only a small part of its company’s accounting and payroll operations. “Costs in North America have decreased, and outsourcing some activities may not be as appealing as it was before,” CEO Aguirre explains. Bremmer insists that outsourcing remains “as attractive now as ever,” though he points out that the economics of offshore outsourcing are changing rapidly as traditional destinations like Bangalore and Shanghai become less affordable. “Companies now have to look to interior China and Vietnam to get cheaper labor,” he notes.

Whether you seek cheap labor, abundant natural resources or aspirational consumers, success in emerging markets requires cultural understanding and the ability to forge strong ties with local partners, says Jean-Louis Chaussade, CEO of Suez Environnement Co. (NYSE Euronext: SEV), a French water and waste treatment company that provides potable water to 90 million customers worldwide and had 2009 revenues of $15 billion. “We are a global player, but we act locally and have a strong partnership culture,” says Chaussade. “Our association with local partners reinforces the understanding of local challenges while allowing for a sharing of risks and capital invested.”

Successful partnering often requires companies to expend resources on activities that pay off in goodwill even if they never show up on the bottom line, says Graham Briggs, CEO of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY). When the South African company with $1.3 billion in 2009 revenues first started mining in Papua New Guinea, Briggs worked hard to establish good relations with local communities affected by Harmony’s mining activities. “We looked at what was best for them,” the CEO explains. “The government gets a royalty of 2 percent [of the mineral value that Harmony extracts], and we undertook a lot of administration to make sure the royalty got distributed in a fair way.”